Ph

Statistcal modelling for evaluation and post-processing of climate predictions

Datum
08.05.2015
Zeit
10:30 - 11:30
Sprecher
Stefan Siegert
Zugehörigkeit
University of Exeter, UK
Sprache
en
Hauptthema
Physik
Andere Themen
Physik
Host
Holger Kantz
Beschreibung
Predicting future weather is inherently limited to a few days to weeks by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, and by our incomplete knowledge and imperfect implementation of the governing equations. Certain large-scale features of the atmosphere are, however, predictable on time-scales of several months. One example is the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a climate index related to storm activity and average winter temperatures in Europe. I am going to use a recent data set of retrospective forecasts of winter NAO index to discuss current practice in statistical post-processing of climate forecasts. Post-processing is necessary to correct systematic biases of the climate model. I will then propose a simple statistical framework to describe climate models and their relation to the real world. The parameters of the statistical framework are estimated -- and their uncertainty quantified -- by Bayesian inference. The statistical framework is used to address important questions about the quality and application of the NAO forecasts: Can the numerical model output be used as a substitute for the real world? How certain can we be about the observed correlation between predicted and measured NAO index? How should the deterministic climate model output be transformed into a probabilistic prediction for future NAO? I will conclude by discussing a number of possible extensions of the statistical framework which I am intending to study during my one-month stay at MPIPKS. Main reference: S.Siegert et al (2015): A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability? [submitted to Journal of Climate] Preprint: arxiv.org/abs/1504.01933

Letztmalig verändert: 08.05.2015, 09:42:11

Veranstaltungsort

Max-Planck-Institut für Physik komplexer Systeme (Room 1D1)Nöthnitzer Straße3801187Dresden
Telefon
+ 49 (0)351 871 0
E-Mail
MPI-PKS
Homepage
http://www.mpipks-dresden.mpg.de

Veranstalter

Max-Planck-Institut für Physik komplexer SystemeNöthnitzer Straße3801187Dresden
Telefon
+ 49 (0)351 871 0
E-Mail
MPI-PKS
Homepage
http://www.mpipks-dresden.mpg.de
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